Where the estimate comes from
From what you marked in the inspection: swarm cells, the ratio of brood to colony strength, drone brood, queen age. The rules are open and the same for every colony — this is not "artificial intelligence", these are the same signs you judge by yourself.
Three states instead of a number
Fine, watch, problem. A percentage would look more precise than it really is: you cannot honestly compute "73 % risk" from a dozen signs. Three states are easy to tell apart in bright sun and hard to confuse.
What happens next
Saw swarm cells — the app creates a task to check the colony in three days. Cut them — a re-check in a week, because cut cells grow back.
- You see the red hive on the apiary map from the gate
- The reason is written in words: "4 swarm cells", not "73 % risk"
- The follow-up task is created automatically and will not get lost
